25 March 2026
Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison covered a few key industry topics this week, taking a closer look at the recent ECJ development and the March Madness betting market.
The pair begin with the recent ECJ opinion around German player-loss cases, which they suggest offers limited clarity for the wider industry. The opinion appears to support the right of member states to enforce local gambling licensing regimes, as long as those rules comply with EU law. However, it still leaves the biggest questions unanswered.
According to Ed, March Madness is the single most-bet tournament in the world. H2 estimates that the legal US sportsbook handle for the men’s and women’s tournaments combined will reach $4 billion, up from $3.7 billion last year.
In addition, Ed estimates prediction markets could generate around $1.6 billion in volume on the tournament, which he translates to roughly $530 million in handle equivalent. The amount directly competing with regulated sportsbooks in states where sports betting is already legal is much smaller, at around $135 million to $150 million.
From the discussion, prediction markets are far from the only factor that could affect sportsbook performance. Other pressures, such as promotional pullbacks, macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer behaviour, may have a greater impact on handle.
The pair conclude by widening the discussion around prediction markets more broadly. Robin points to recent developments in places such as Brazil, Argentina and the Netherlands, while Ed remains firmly sceptical about their long-term prospects.